By Ephrem Murindabigwi
The UN’s 2026 Global Risk Report gives a sobering context for the question of whether World War III has already begun. Its finding that a large-scale war and geopolitical tension feature among the top 10 threats in all seven surveyed regions strengthens concerns addressed in this article —about interconnected conflicts, escalating rivalries among major powers, and the growing risk of a wider confrontation. The UN report measures perceptions of global risks rather than foreseeing an unavoidable world war.
Similar concerns emerge from the Atlantic Council’s Global Foresight 2025 survey, reported in its article “Welcome to 2035: What the World Could Look Like in Ten Years, According to More Than 350 Experts.” According to the Atlantic Council, 40 per cent of its 357 respondents expected another world war by 2035, potentially involving nuclear weapons and extending into space. Although the two surveys differ in scope and methodology, both highlight growing concern about the future of global security.
Neither survey contends that a world war stands inevitable or that one has already started. The UN report assesses perceptions of current and emerging risks, while the Atlantic Council survey investigates expectations about the coming decade.
Taken together, though, all the pieces raise a crucial question: are we witnessing the early stages of a global war, or does the world still possess the time to prevent today’s gathering geopolitical storms from becoming a catastrophic global conflagration?
UN’s report
“Two years ago, the idea of a large-scale war breaking out felt like a distant hypothetical to the experts who help chart the world’s dangers. Today it tops their list of fears,” reads the UN’s 15 September 2026 story headlined “World fears major war more than any other global risk, UN survey finds”.
This story processed out of a new UN Global Risk Report adds “Large-scale war climbed 16 places up the rankings compared with 2024 – the steepest rise of any risk on the list. More than a third of those surveyed, 36 per cent, think its effects could touch a significant share of humanity within a year; 76 per cent expect that within seven years.
It is also a threat the world seems ill-equipped to face: large-scale war was the only risk to land in the top six across all four measures the survey tracked – importance, imminence, how interconnected it is with other dangers, and how unprepared institutions are to respond. Two years ago, environmental threats, misinformation and pandemics dominated the picture. Now geopolitical tension, war and a weakening rule of law sit at its centre.”
According to the UN, this study draws on the views of 1,300 people from various sectors and threats and span every region of the world. The respondents include those from government, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and academia. They’ve rated 28 political, economic, environmental, societal and technological threats on how likely they were, how damaging, and how ready the world is to cope.
“The findings are sobering. Political risks have moved centre stage. The prospect of large-scale war is seen as far more important and far more immediate than it was two years ago,” Secretary-General António Guterres wrote in the report’s foreword. “At the same time, the institutions expected to respond are seen as less able to act.”
This report highlights that no region stands immune. “The shift shows up everywhere. Large-scale war and geopolitical tension now rank among the top 10 threats in every one of the seven regions the survey covers, and in the top five in six of them.
Two years ago, these same risks made the top five in just one region. Weapons of mass destruction also broke into the top 10 in Central and Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. In Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, worries grew over a possible global financial crisis, the downsides of artificial intelligence, and the growing power of technology companies. AI-related risks also entered the top 10 in Europe and North America.”
The world’s seven geographical regions most commonly refer to the world’s seven continents: North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Oceania [Australia], and Antarctica. Some countries teach a six-continent model, combining Europe and Asia as Eurasia or combining North and South America into one continent. The model used depends on an educational tradition.
The survey however notes that pandemics and biological threats no longer figure among the top 10 worries in the world. “Pandemics and biological threats, by contrast, fell out of the top 10 everywhere – a sharp reversal from two years ago, when they still ranked among the most pressing risks in Eastern and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa.”
“Interconnected threats”
(Image credit: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images / Shutterstock), — The Week.
The risks are so interconnected that, according to the study, it increases chances for a large-scale or global catastrophe. “No risk exists on its own, the report argues. Shortages of natural resources, economic fragmentation, misinformation and weakening multilateral institutions all raise the temperature on geopolitical tension – which in turn makes large-scale war more likely. Of the 705 connections between risks that the survey identified, the link between geopolitical tension and war was the strongest.”
The study report sounds the artificial intelligence alarm bell. Yet, it doesn’t overlook climate change either. “Artificial intelligence draws particular attention in the report. Concerns about AI, other frontier technologies and the concentration of power they enable have grown sharply in two years – even as respondents say the multilateral system is the least prepared to handle technological threats.
Climate change, meanwhile, has not gone away: inaction on it remains the single risk rated most important overall, and it ranks high in every region, alongside worries about resource shortages. The report’s authors caution that other environmental risks slipping down the list does not mean they have become less dangerous – only less visible. And visibility matters: issues that draw less attention often lose funding too.”
Prediction of a world war by 2035
The Atlantic Council says it is a nonpartisan organization galvanizing US leadership and engagement in the world, in partnership with allies and partners, to shape solutions to global challenges. It released an article titled “Welcome to 2035 What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 350 experts”, produced out of this organization’s Global Foresight 2025.
“Forty percent of respondents expect a world war in the next decade—one that could go nuclear and extend to space,” it reads. “For the first time in our annual survey, we asked respondents whether they expected there to be another world war by 2035. We defined such a war as involving a multifront conflict among great powers. And the results were alarming, with 40 percent saying yes. While this was a new question, our Global Foresight 2024 survey surfaced a similar concern, with nearly a quarter of respondents pointing to war between major powers as the greatest threat to global prosperity over the next ten years.
Overall, just under half of our survey respondents (46 percent) agreed that the emerging axis of Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea will be formal allies in 2035. While this was the first time we asked this question regarding all four countries, in our Global Foresight 2024 survey 33 percent of respondents thought Russia and China would be formal allies in ten years’ time. Many respondents appeared to associate these potential developments with the prospect of a world war.”
The survey involved 357 respondents who were mostly citizens of the United States (just under 55 percent of those polled), according to the Atlantic Council. It further states that the others are spread across sixty countries and every continent except Antarctica which isn’t occupied by permanent residents or indigenous populations. According to this organization, the respondents skewed male and older, and were dispersed across a range of fields including the private sector, nonprofits, academic or educational organizations, and government and multilateral institutions.
Remedy?
The UN report suggests working together, to address the issues. “So, what would help? Respondents pointed to weak governance and coordination, a lack of political consensus, and eroding trust and accountability as the biggest obstacles to managing risk – alongside poor prioritisation, resistance from the public, politicians or business, and gaps in data.
Separately, 86 per cent said funding for risk reduction simply was not enough, with the report singling out natural hazards and the risk of multilateral institutions collapsing as particularly underfunded. The UN is careful to frame the report as a snapshot of perceptions rather than a prediction. Respondents still see joint action between governments as by far the most effective means of prevention. No country, no company, no institution can face these risks alone.”
Guterres states “The 2026 Global Risk Report sets out the evidence that must inform our choices. We owe it to present and future generations to use this knowledge wisely, and to act while cooperation can still shape a safer course. The choice is ours.”