“Weather forecasting is not only key for Rwanda, though very challenging”

By Jean Baptiste Ndabananiye

Accurate forecasting in a country where weather determines the fate of farmers, construction projects, and even disaster preparedness, is not a choice—it’s a necessity. Yet, Rwanda’s unique geographic location and climatic conditions constitute persistent challenges to precision in meteorology. From towering cumulonimbus clouds that suddenly shift across borders to scorching temperatures that evaporate rain-producing formations, weather patterns remain elusive. “People think that our equipment is lacking, but the real challenge is our position between the tropics,” says Anthony Twahirwa of Rwanda Meteorology Agency—Meteo Rwanda.

Despite these obstacles, the agency says that it is continuing to advance; for instance, preparing to launch a high-altitude weather balloon to enhance forecast accuracy. Meanwhile, this agency stresses the critical importance of its forecasts, urging the public—especially farmers—to heed them. Recognizing the media’s power in reaching the masses, the agency now wishes to strengthen partnerships with journalists to ensure that life-shaping forecasts don’t go unheard, though financial hurdles remain a strong barrier.

This was uttered during a visit—on April 24, 2025, by a around 20 journalists to Meteo Rwanda— organized by the Rwanda Environmental Journalists (REJ). The visit followed a two-day training session conducted by REJ on Solutions Journalism with funding from FOJO/Rwanda Media Program, a special focus placed on environmental reporting. The engagement aimed to build stronger ties between journalists and weather experts. It was also designed to equip the reporters with tools to highlight not only the problems but also the responses and innovations addressing climate-related challenges in Rwanda. REJ affirmed its commitment to partnering with the agency, to help address the challenge of scarcity of media engagement in the field of weather forecasting and ensure that weather forecasts reach the communities that need them most.

Rwanda’s complex weather patterns 

Anthony Twahirwa, Division Manager of Weather/Climate Services and Application says “There exist ten recognized types of clouds, one of them being cumulonimbus—a towering, dense formation commonly linked with thunderstorms and severe weather. It is this sort of cloud that produces heavy rain, lightning, and thunder.

Some people claim that lightning strikes prevail more in regions rich in minerals and methane gas; however, no scientific research has been conducted to verify this assertion. Therefore, it demands that we collaborate with our relevant stakeholders to perform a study that can either confirm or refute this hypothesis. What we know today is that lightning strikes emanate from the cumulonimbus cloud.”

Twahirwa explains why the agency may announce a specific weather condition at a given time, only for the opposite to occur. “It is true that we sometimes forecast that it will rain but it eventually doesn’t; that’s why we call it forecasting.  That’s due to various reasons. It comes to pass that you observe a cloud which seems certain to generate rain, but there comes a wind which carries it from Rwanda to Uganda, for example. High temperatures can also contribute to the elimination of a rain-generating cloud.”

High temperatures usually combine with several other atmospheric factors, to neutralize a rain-producing cloud. These include dry air mixing in and evaporating the cloud, sinking air from high-pressure systems that suppresses cloud growth, or a stable atmosphere that prevents the upward movement needed for clouds to develop. Additionally, strong wind shear or temperature inversions can disrupt or evaporate the rain before it reaches the ground, effectively killing the rain.

Wind shear refers to a sudden change in the speed or direction of the wind over a short distance in the atmosphere. It can occur either vertically (with changes in altitude) or horizontally (across different areas). Wind shear can beget significant effects on weather patterns and flight conditions. For example, in storms, wind shear can disrupt the formation of clouds and rain, or contribute to the development of severe weather events like thunderstorms and tornadoes. In aviation, wind shear is particularly dangerous as it can cause abrupt changes in an aircraft’s altitude or speed, posing risks during takeoff or landing.

Some countries are known for their ability to predict weather conditions accurately. Twahirwa explains why this is the case. “Since Rwanda is situated between the tropics of Capricorn and Cancer, we enjoy abundant sunshine throughout the year— from the beginning to the end of a year. In contrast, countries located further north, above the Equator, experience long periods without sunlight—spending three or four months in cold weather.

As it’s possible to forecast rain more accurately in regions with limited sunlight, some people from these countries criticize us for our occasional inaccurate weather forecasts. They believe that we employ subpar equipment, but the real reason lies in our geographical location, where the sun ensures a constant presence.”

​Twahirwa’s statement regarding the challenges of weather forecasting in Rwanda due to its geographical location is indirectly supported by  a certain report by Meteo Rwanda. It highlights that Rwanda’s location in the East African Rift Valley, near the Nyiragongo volcanoes, and the influence of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) contribute to the country’s unique and sometimes unpredictable weather patterns. These factors can lead to variability in rainfall and temperature, making accurate forecasting more challenging.

It states “Climate is the average prevailing weather conditions for a specific geographical region over a period usually exceeding 30 years. Due to its high altitude, Rwanda enjoys a tropical temperate climate. The average annual temperature ranges between 16 and 20°C, without significant variations. Rainfall is abundant although it has some irregularities.

Rwanda’s average temperature varies according its topography. Low temperatures are observed in the regions of high altitude with average temperatures ranging between 15 and 17°C. In some parts of the volcanic region, temperatures can go below 0°C. Moderate temperatures are found in areas with intermediary altitude where average temperatures vary between 19 and 21°C. In the lowlands (east and southwest), temperatures are higher and the extreme can go beyond 30°C in February and July-August.”

This confirms Twahirwa’s statement by emphasizing the challenges posed by Rwanda’s unique geographical location, including its position within the East African Rift Valley and the influence of the ITCZ. These factors, along with significant variations in altitude and temperature, contribute to the complex and unpredictable weather patterns that complicate accurate forecasting in the region.

Twahirwa calls for forecast exploitation

Twahirwa first reassures that the agency is committed to continuous improvements in weather forecasting. He says that they are consistently acquiring state-of-the-art equipment to enhance precision, despite the challenges created by Rwanda’s location between the tropics. These advancements are expected to contribute significantly to more accurate and reliable weather forecasts, further overcoming geographical constraints.

“You  cannot remove those challenges 100%, but with technology advancements, we will continue to improve the accuracy of our forecasts and minimize the impact of these limitations. For instance, we are close to acquiring a weather balloon which will considerably enhance forecasting accuracy,” Twahirwa says. The balloon is expected in September this year.

A weather balloon, also known as a radiosonde, represents a vital tool used in weather forecasting to collect atmospheric data at various altitudes. It consists of a large helium or hydrogen-filled balloon that carries an instrument package designed to measure important parameters such as temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed and direction. As the balloon ascends into the atmosphere, the radiosonde transmits data back to ground stations, providing real-time insights into the vertical structure of the atmosphere.

This data is crucial for weather prediction as it helps meteorologists to understand atmospheric conditions at different heights; which is essential for forecasting weather events like storms, rain, and temperature shifts. Weather balloons provide vertical atmospheric profiles that allow for a better understanding of temperature and moisture distribution; which in turn aids in predicting phenomena such as thunderstorms or hurricanes. They also play a key role in tracking the development of storm systems by offering detailed information about pressure, temperature, and wind patterns at various levels.

Typically launched twice daily at weather stations worldwide, weather balloons are essential for obtaining the most current data. Weather balloons remain one of the most reliable methods for gathering high-altitude atmospheric data and significantly contribute to improving the accuracy of weather forecasts.

Weather balloons, or radiosondes, typically reach altitudes of about 30 to 35 kilometers (approximately 18 to 22 miles) above the Earth’s surface. At this height, they are able to gather valuable atmospheric data, including measurements of temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind at various levels of the atmosphere. The balloon set to arrive in Rwanda also holds the capacity to reach that altitude.

Despite those challenges, Twahirwa affirms that forecasts from the agency remain a vital tool in guiding decision-making, especially in agriculture. He says “We exhort people, especially farmers, to exploit reports and information that we disseminate to them, as these forecasts still provide valuable guidance despite occasional inaccuracies.”

This sentiment is echoed by Vincentie Nyinawumuntu, living in Mbazi Sector in Huye District, who illustrates tangible benefits of heeding such guidance. “The forecast information actually helps farmers a lot, when they strictly follow it,” she explains. “For example, at the beginning of January this year, the Rwanda Meteorology Agency alerted us that we would not receive enough rain, and that this little rain expected would not go beyond May.

In response, knowing that rice takes six months to ripen, we and our agronomists decided to start preparing our land for rice cultivation immediately. This way, we hoped that the rain would end in May while our rice had already sprouted grains — and that is exactly what is happening now, as the rice has already started forming grains.”

Nyinawumuntu is vice-presidency of COAIRWA— the Cooperative of Rwasave Marsh Rice Farmers— comprising 958 members—511 women and 447 men. The marsh is situated in Huye District at approximately 2.5 kilometers from the district’s city. Her experience reinforces the message that even when forecasts are not perfect, they still serve as a crucial early warning system, enabling farmers to adapt in time and make informed, strategic decisions.

Emphasizing upon the colossal importance of weather forecasting, Dr. Védaste Iyakaremye—Division Manager in charge of Data Observation, Quality Control and Processing within the agency says “RTDA [Rwanda Transport Development Agency] cannot award a contract unless the contractor provides detailed information about the conditions of the area where the road is to be built. Are there risks of flooding, for example? What was the situation in that specific location in the distant past? RTDA requires every contractor to factor in such climate information in their road design studies, for example, to ensure roads are climate resilient.”

REJ and Meteo Rwanda to collaborate

Twahirwa highlights a significant challenge faced by the Rwanda Meteorology Agency—the limited coverage of weather forecasts in the media. According to him, the primary reason for this is financial constraints, as media owners often require payment for running advertorials, leaving weather forecasts underreported. Recognizing the vital role weather information plays in shaping daily activities, particularly in agriculture, Twahirwa calls for greater collaboration between the agency and the media.

“When we approach media owners or leaders, they tell us that we have to pay; we, however, don’t possess the budget to meet these financial demands. Despite this, the media’s intervention is critical, as it is the most effective means of spreading information to a wider public.

The challenge we face is bridging the gap between the necessity of disseminating crucial weather forecasts to communities—especially farmers—and the financial constraints that hinder the media’s participation in this important task. We are committed to exploring alternative ways of collaboration, ensuring that vital weather information reaches those who need it the most, without being hindered by financial limitations.”

In response, the Rwanda Environmental Journalists expresses its readiness to partner with the agency to address this gap. They are open to discussions aimed at finding sustainable solutions for incorporating weather forecasts into media reports, ensuring that the public, especially farmers, receives timely and accurate weather updates to take informed decisions. This collaboration seeks to improve access to essential weather information, ultimately contributing to more effective climate adaptation strategies in Rwanda.

REJ’s Program Manager has said “REJ is deeply committed to ensuring that climate and weather information becomes accessible and actionable for all Rwandans, especially those whose livelihoods depend on it. We believe that by bridging the gap between meteorological experts and the media, we can empower communities with knowledge that saves time, resources, and even lives.

Therefore, we are going to initiate a structured collaboration framework with Meteo Rwanda; we will come to thoroughly discuss our partnership modalities and explore practical ways to solve this issue of limited media coverage of weather forecasts.”

The first weather station was established in Rwanda in 1907 at Save Parish. Rwanda operates more than 300 weather stations. They include 13 stations—9 agrometeorological and 4 synoptic ones, 132 stations being run by volunteers whom Meteo Rwanda has trained, and 107 automatic weather stations [AWSs], among others. In particular, Kigali is served by 1 synoptic station located at Kigali International Airport, 1 agrometeorological, and 7 AWS among others.

Weather forecasts are essential anywhere

Weather forecasts are especially crucial in today’s world, impacting every facet of daily life, from agriculture to transportation. Accurate weather predictions help individuals, businesses, and governments to prepare themselves for impending weather events, ensuring safety and minimizing potential damage. For example, in agriculture, farmers rely on weather forecasts to plan planting, harvesting, and protect crops from extreme weather such as frost or drought. Similarly, airlines and shipping companies use weather forecasts to ensure safe travel routes, avoiding turbulent storms or dangerous conditions.

In urban areas, forecasts are vital for managing city infrastructure. Anticipating severe weather helps cities to prepare for flooding, snow removal, or power outages, preventing costly disruptions. Additionally, weather forecasts are essential for public health, as they provide warnings about heatwaves, cold spells, or airborne diseases that can be spread by certain weather conditions.

Moreover, in the context of climate change, accurate forecasting has become more critical than ever. It helps scientists to track shifting weather patterns, enabling proactive measures to reduce the impacts of climate-related disasters. Overall, weather forecasting remains a cornerstone for effective decision-making worldwide, ensuring that societies are better prepared for both predictable and unforeseen weather events.

In its 12 March 2024 article headlined “Weather forecasts have become much more accurate; we now need to make them available to everyone”, Our World in Data echoes “Weather forecasts are often seen as just a nice thing to have. Useful when planning a Sunday barbecue or when we want to know if we’ll need an umbrella for the day. But in many ways, weather forecasts are absolutely crucial: they can be a matter of life and death.

Accurate forecasts can save lives by giving early warnings of storms, heat waves, and disasters. Farmers use them for agricultural management, which can make the difference between a lost harvest or a harvest of plenty. Grid operators rely on accurate forecasts of temperatures for heating and cooling demand, and how much energy they’ll get from wind and solar farms. Pilots and sailors need them to carry people across oceans safely. Accurate information about future weather is often absolutely vital.” 

​Our World in Data constitutes a scientific online publication that focuses on large global problems like poverty, disease, hunger, climate change, war, existential risks, and inequality. It is a project of the Global Change Data Lab, a registered charity— in England and Wales—established by Max Roser, a social historian and development economist. The research team is based at the University of Oxford.