Are Russia and Ukraine so exhausted that they are ready for talks brokered by Narendra Modi?

Editorial Staff

According to The Moscow Times’ May 9, 2023 article, in an interview published by Spanish daily El Pais, the UN chief António Manuel de Oliveira Guterres declared that peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine were “not possible at this moment. It is clear that the [two] parties are completely absorbed in this war” and “are convinced that they can win.” He nevertheless stated that he hoped it would be possible to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table in the future.

On Friday last week, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Ukraine and declared that he is ready to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  “I want to assure you that India is ready to play an active role in any efforts toward peace. If I can play any role in this personally, I will do that. I want to assure you as a friend,” he said as quoted by Deutsche Welle. Analysts’ views on the possibility to mediate the conflict diverge, some arguing that Modi can do so while others reject it. A big percentage of Ukrainians desire peace talks between the two nations. Life In Humanity has therefore decided to delve into this issue, exploring various factors that can facilitate or hinder peace negotiations between the two countries. This article is built upon these two main sections:

1. Factors likely to be an enabling environment, and
2. Factors likely to be an incapacitating environment for the peace project.

Factors likely to be an enabling environment

Modi is India’s first chief of government who has visited Ukraine since this country achieved its independence from the Soviet Union. On August 24, 1991Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union to which Russia belonged. This declaration followed a failed coup attempt, in Moscow, which accelerated the fall of the Soviet Union.

On 1 December 1991, Ukraine organized a referendum where more than 90% of voters supported independence, solidifying its separation from Russia and the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was officially dismembered on December 26, 1991, marking Ukraine’s formal separation as an independent state recognized by the international community.

The United States, along with other Western countries, is said to have fulfilled a significant role in the disintegration of the Soviet Union, although some other causes are cited. It is said that the disintegration of the Soviet Union was primarily prompted by internal factors. The latter ones include economic inefficiency, political corruption, nationalist movements within the Soviet republics, and the desire for greater autonomy and independence.

If the last visit by an Indian head of government took place in the 1991s, it means that approximately 33 years had passed until last Friday when Modi got to Ukraine. This justifies the reason why both leaders, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and  Modi, praised the meeting as “historic.” “Today, history was made,” Zelenskiy posted on X/Twitter. He pointed out Modi’s “friendly” and “symbolic” visit came on the eve of celebrations for Ukraine’s independence day.

Upon stepping on Ukraine, Modi exhorted Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy to hold talks with Moscow. He emphasized that he went to Ukraine, conveying a message of peace.

Modi told his counterpart “The road to resolution can only be found through dialogue and diplomacy. And we should move in that direction without wasting any time. Both sides should sit together to find a way out of this crisis.”

Zelenskyy indicated that he agreed upon the suggestion, stating “The matter of ending the war and a just peace are the priority for Ukraine.”

Modi conducted a state visit to Ukraine yesterday, while he also visited Moscow last July. Zelenskyy then castigated Modi who was photographed embracing the Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Zelenskyy wrote online “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.”

This quote signifies that, according Zelenskyy, peace efforts mean completely isolating Russia’s President Putin so that all countries’ leaders cease to maintain any relations with him.

The USA also vehemently criticized Modi’s visit to Russia. The National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, cautioned that strong ties with Russia constituted a “bad bet” for India. The State Department Spokesperson, Matthew Miller, said that the USA was worried with India’s relations about Russia. Moreover, Eric Garcetti- the US ambassador to India- warned that New Delhi could not take its friendship with Washington “for granted”. However, the US insisted that its strategic partnership with India, focused on shared concerns on China, — stays robust. 

India, which has blasted Western sanctions on Moscow, preserves considerable economic and diplomatic ties with Russia. This country has also moved to intensify security cooperation with Western states. The fact that India has managed to safeguard its relations with the West and Russia prompts some analysts to believe that it can really mediate the intricate conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Al Jazeera echoes the point “Still, India remains a rare nation that enjoys good relations with both Russia and the West, Ukraine’s principal backer, and some analysts believe Modi could play a role in pushing the two sides towards talks.”

Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian diplomat and strategic analyst who also worked in Russia, is one of the analysts. He told Al Jazeera “Prime Minister Modi’s visit might create an opportunity for dialogue and diplomacy,” before conceding “It is not an easy task.” “But try we must for peace.”

With “But try we must for peace”, this analyst intended to underline that heedless of how hard it can be, it remains essential and necessary to conduct an effort to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Back to Guterres’ statement, another factor of the enabling  environment would be if these nations were so exhausted that they felt obliged to do nothing else but end the war.

Here arises this major question “Are they actually exhausted?”

There have been multiple reports and analyses suggesting that both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are experiencing exhaustion due to the prolonged war. Reasons for this exhaustion include high losses, among others.

The Voice of America [VOA] released a story on July 01, 2024. This USA’s largest and oldest media organization reported that several recent journalistic investigations had generated statistics indicating that Russia’s military had suffered staggering losses since launching its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The VOA said “In late June, independent Russian outlet Important Stories found ‘more than 71,000 Russian men died in the war’ since February 2022. Based on figures compiled by the Russia’s State Statistics Service, the report also found that at least 45,000 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine in 2023 alone.

Earlier in June, an open-source investigation conducted by independent Russian media outlet Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian-language service confirmed the names of 64,000 Russian soldiers who had been killed since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The journalists who conducted the research suggested that the number of fatalities are likely at least twice as high. On the second anniversary of the invasion, Mediazona and Meduza, another independent Russian media outlet, jointly published a study that found an estimated 83,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine.”

According to the VOA, last August The New York Times reported that U.S. officials who were unidentified said that up to 120,000 Russian troops had been killed and that 170,000 to 180,000 were wounded, “compared to nearly 70,000 Ukrainian troops killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded”.

“The Kremlin does not release official statistics on miliary [military] casualties. On Monday [perhaps on 1 July 2024], The Kyiv Independent confirmed that Ukraine’s General Staff is reporting that Russia has lost more than 540,000 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion — a number that includes killed and injured. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February claimed that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the February 2022 invasion. He also said that he wouldn’t disclose the number of Ukrainian troops that were wounded or missing.”

In the meantime, Life In Humanity takes this opportunity to tell you that this statistics is not unanimously accepted. There are sources and experts that question the statistics, of Russian war losses in Ukraine, provided by Western governments and media outlets.

In its April 19, 2024 story The Associated Press (AP) indicated that Ukrainian forces were already extremely tired of the war. “Russian troops are ramping up pressure on exhausted Ukrainian forces to prepare to seize more land this spring and summer as muddy fields dry out and allow tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy equipment to roll to key positions across the countryside,” AP reported.

With its April 4, 2024 story, AP quoting Western intelligence estimates said that more than half a million people had been killed or seriously injured in two years of war in Ukraine. “A human toll not seen in Europe since World War II.”

AP however added that it was Ukraine which looked more vulnerable, even if it had been reportedly facing lower losses at war. “The question of who prevails is being increasingly shaped by which side can tolerate higher losses. Analysts say it will be hard for Ukraine to outmatch Russian forces, which continue to grow despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, without significant resources from its international partners. By that measure, Moscow has the upper hand.”

AP cited Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine now managing the McCain Institute at Arizona State University, whom AP said that she stated “Putin is not running a democracy. Putin can afford to be more callous and disregard the body count.”

This media organization added that the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is nevertheless presiding over a more democratic system where Farkas said “The will of the people is actually the strongest component of their war machine.”

AP further said that Russia boasted 3.7 times more men of fighting age than Ukraine in 2022, according to World Bank data. “That means that though Russia has sustained nearly twice as many casualties as Ukraine, according to Western intelligence estimates, on a per capita basis Russia’s losses remain lower than Ukraine’s.

At current levels of recruitment, the Kremlin can sustain current attrition rates through 2025, according to an assessment by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a think tank in London.”

Factors likely to be an incapacitating environment for the peace project

The Razumkov Center, a Ukrainian think-tank performed a survey on behalf of the Ukrainian online newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnia. 44% of Ukrainians in areas behind the frontline pointed out that it is time to embark on official talks between Kyiv and Moscow. 35% said that there stands no reason to start peace talks while 21% were undecided.

The findings indicated that Ukrainians are firmly opposed to Ukraine accepting and accomplishing Putin’s recently determined conditions to end the war. Approximately 83% of respondents rejected the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions not controlled by Russia. Nearly 84% opposed ceding these territories to Russia. 77% additionally rejected cancelling all Western sanctions against Russia.

Ukrainian officials have also always highlighted that a full Russian withdrawal from the Ukrainian territory forms a precondition for talks.

The Guardian citing India’s foreign ministry reported last week “In official talks, they [Zelenskyy and Modi] discussed the 10-point peace formula Zelenskiy has presented to the international community.” “The blueprint envisages the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied areas, reparations and war crime tribunals for Russian generals and political figures,” added The Guardian.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor in the Ukrainian President’s Office, declared Friday’s discussions in Kyiv were significant because Delhi “really has a certain influence” over Moscow. Nonetheless, Podolyak did not mention this influence, with the intention to say that  Ukraine was prepared to enter peace talks with Russia. The influence is instead to be used to convince Russia  to accept the formula determined by Ukraine.

He told Reuters “It’s extremely important for us to effectively build relations with such countries, to explain to them what the correct end to the war is – and that it is also in their interests.”

There actually exist issues compounding the complexity and intractability of the conflict.

Al Jazeera reported on last Friday “Ukraine’s recent incursion through the fragile Russian border into Kursk, where it claims to have grabbed 1,250sq km (777sq miles) of territory, has altered the balance of military engagement between the two countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged a firm response, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken about using his military’s territorial gains inside Russia for a land and prisoner swap, and to create a buffer zone between the warring neighbours. At the moment, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said there is no possibility of any talks with Kyiv.”

On the day following the one on which Zelenskyy and Modi met, what Zelenskyy declared does not seem to align with a plan to hold negotiations. According to Reuters,  Zelenskiy touted a newly developed Ukrainian drone missile on Saturday. According to Reuters, he said that the drone missile would take the war back to Russia and scornfully derided Russia’s Vladimir Putin as “a sick old man from Red Square.”

Ukraine was then celebrating 33 years of post-Soviet independence. Zelenskiy grabbed the occasion to praise the new weapon, Palianytsia. He said that this weapon is faster and more powerful than domestically manufactured drones that Kyiv has so far employed to fight back against Russia, hitting its oil refineries and military airfields.

He declared “Our enemy will know what the Ukrainian way for retaliation is. Worthy, symmetrical, long-ranged.”

Reuters added that Zelenskiyy said the new class of Ukrainian weapon had been employed in a successful strike on a target in Russia, though he didn’t specify the location of the target.

With contemptuous language used to describe Russia’s 71-year-old president and response to the nuclear rhetoric expressed by Moscow, he said “A sick old man from Red Square who constantly threatens everyone with the red button will not dictate any of his red lines to us.”

Zelenskyy said that war had returned to Russia, vowing retribution. Al Jazeera reported “By launching its 2022 invasion, he said ‘Russia was seeking one thing: to destroy us’, adding that ‘what the enemy brought to our land has now returned to his home’.” “Anyone who wants to sow evil on our land will reap its fruit on their territory. This is not a prediction, not gloating, not blind revenge. It is justice.”

Furthermore, some analysts and serving diplomats point out that the recent expansion of the war represents a big challenge for Modi and any peace effort. Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at Rand Corporation, told Al Jazeera “Modi is very unlikely to broker a peaceful resolution due to its complexity and also due to India’s role as a peripheral player, but perhaps most importantly because India doesn’t have any strong incentives to do so.”

He pointed out that India’s longstanding strategic relationship with Russia and burgeoning ties with the West require a careful balancing act by New Delhi. “Any overstep in negotiations toward one side or another could undermine these partnerships.”

Gulshan Sachdeva is a professor of European Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University. He said that he does not expect much from Modi’s trip and that Russia and the West are capable of speaking to each other directly.

There are people, according to Al Jazeera, who think that Modi conducted the visit to Kyiv just for a different purpose. “What is India’s game plan? So, what does Modi’s visit to Ukraine mean for India’s relations with Russia and what does it get out of the trip to Kyiv? Putin won’t be thrilled about Modi’s visit to Kyiv.

Still, India has repeatedly made clear that, unlike the West, it does not support the ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar has emphasised that New Delhi views the stability of its relations with Russia as an important pillar of its foreign policy. Christopher Clary, non-resident fellow at the Washington, DC-based Stimson Center, said he believes that the visit’s primary deliverable is the visit itself.”

Clary explained “The symbolism shows his acknowledgement of Ukraine’s suffering in this brutal war. Even if India is unwilling to condemn Russia’s role in starting the war, Modi bearing witness to it will serve to insulate India from some criticism. India could also use this trip to underscore its vision of strategic autonomy.”

Harish Khare, Indian political analyst and former advisor to Manmohan Singh- Modi’s predecessor, bluntly said that the trip to Kyiv was only designed to please Washington. “No substantive results should be expected from the visit. He is going there to appease his Western friends.”

Today, according to AP, Russia unleashed a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine. AP says that drone and missile barrage throughout Ukraine targeted energy infrastructure. “At least three people were reported killed, and power cuts were reported across the country. Russian forces fired drones, cruise missiles and hypersonic ballistic Kinzhal missiles at 15 Ukrainian regions — more than half the country, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Monday morning.”

Shmyhal stated “The energy infrastructure has once again become the target of Russian terrorists. Unfortunately, there is damage in a number of regions.”

He therefore asked Ukraine’s allies to furnish Kyiv with long-range weapons and permission to employ them on targets inside Russia. “In order to stop the barbaric shelling of Ukrainian cities, it is necessary to destroy the place from which the Russian missiles are launched. We count on the support of our allies and will definitely make Russia pay.”